To whom it may concern:
The Steve Harney blog has been kidnapped and transported to the KCMblog.com.
Thank you for your understanding and cooperation. Your real estate information will be waiting there.
-The KCM Crew
I hope everyone enjoys a safe and joyous holiday.
My friend Mike Staver is a great speaker and business coach. He recently shared a point that I believe applies to this time of the year.
“If you were sitting with 10 other people and everyone threw their problems on the table, there would be a good chance that you would be more than willing to take yours back.”
Or as my pop used to say:
“I complained of having no shoes until I met a man with no feet.”
Let’s be thankful for what we have!!!
Today’s Talking Point 11/25/09
The Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) just came out with their 3rd Quarter Pricing Report (which covers the previous four quarters). If you go to the bottom of the home page, they have an interactive map where you can see how prices have changed in your state over the last year.
The Case Shiller report was also released this week. The headlines talk about prices rising. Let’s make sure we know the story behind the headlines:
The 10-City Composite is off 8.5% from September 2008.
The 20-City Composite is off 9.4% from September 2008.
The headlines report the month-over-month change in prices. Actually, prices have fallen almost 10% in the last year.
Here is a graph showing Case Shiller prices from Calculated Risk:
With the tax credit for homebuyers and the limited release of distressed properties by the banks, the lower price inventory is being sold off. That is why there has been a slight increase in national prices on a month-to-month basis over the last several months.
Actual prices are NOT going up. Once the ‘shadow’ REO inventory is released, months supply will surge and prices will take another dip.
Existing Sales Skyrocket 10.1% !!
NAR released their Existing Sales Report yesterday. The key points:
Existing-home sales – including single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops – surged 10.1 percent over last month’s numbers and is 23.5 percent above the level in October 2008.
Inventory Read the rest of this entry »
Fear of Double Dip in Housing -
Home Starts Tumble and Mortgage Delinquencies Rise, Casting Cloud Over Recovery
That was the front page headline last Thursday in the Wall Street Journal. The article discussed what we have been addressing for several months now. The article highlighted a growing problem in housing – the number of mortgages which are now delinquent has more than doubled in the last year.
About 3.4% of U.S. households — or about 1.9 million homeowners — are 120 days or more overdue on their payments, but not yet in foreclosure, according to LPS Applied Analytics, a research firm in Denver. That is up from 1.5% a year earlier.
A study by Laurie Goodman of Amherst Securities Group reported that homes which are 90+ days delinquent have a 99.2% chance of going to foreclosure. Whether they come to the market as an REO or a ‘short sale’, they will have a devastating impact on prices.
Here is a chart from Calculated Risk showing the increases in delinquencies (click to enlarge):
When we price our listings today, we must realize that this growing ‘shadow industry’ of homes will be released unto the market over the next few months. Let’s be great counselors to our sellers and make sure they price their homes to sell before this inventory is released.
Here are the major points of a post on Market Watch (part of the Wall Street Journal digital network)
Tips for buyers
Interested in buying a home and claiming the home-buyer tax credit? Below are five tips:
1. Don’t procrastinate
Get searching now. Getting an early start will give you a better chance of finding the right house before the credit deadline. Read the rest of this entry »